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In China G-20 has reached “broad consensus” that world structural reforms need to be undertaken to revive the current weak global economy. It’s become the major positive driver for world markets.

On Monday Brent and WTI had jumped more than 5% and 4% respectively after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid A. Al-Falih was going to make a “significant announcement” at the G-20 meeting in China. But oil prices dropped after the release of the statement which didn’t deliver as much as investors had anticipated. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih agreed to hold the first meeting of a Russian–Saudi working group in Algeria in October, and then in Vienna in November, to discuss how to cooperate under the new agreement. But investors remained skeptical that major producers can agree on measures to counter the persistent glut on the market and freeze oil production. According to the OPEC data for July, members of the OPEC have overall production of 33.7 mln bbl/d level that is the highest in its history. Iran on Monday repeated again that it would continue to increase oil production until it reaches the pre-sanctions level of production.

On Monday Brent and WTI oil futures have reached levels of $47.42 and $45.11 a barrel respectively. The Russian ruble had followed the oil prices pattern appreciating against the U.S. dollar to the level of 64.895. UST-10 yield raised to 1.602%. Troy ounce of gold price increased to $1325.47.

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Chinese economy is improving gradually. Caixin China Services PMI increased in August to 52.1 from 51.7 previous month. Composite PMI index decreased a bit to 51.8 compared to previous reading of 51.9 in July.

Russia’s market due to unstable oil prices may continue to demonstrate volatile dynamics in foreseeable future. Nevertheless, decreasing inflationary risks should pave the way for the Bank of Russia to cut the key rate in September as the Russian market continues to demonstrate some signs of stability and adaption to the current oil price environment. Markit Service PMI in Russia in August was 53.5 that is slightly lower than was expected by investors, but above the critical level of 50. The Russia’s Markit Composite PMI was 52.9 that is lower than July’s 53.5.

The Russian Eurobond market’s condition had improved slightly last week, but the market still looks slightly overbought. In general, Russian Eurobond market has been losing steam. Russian sovereign curve added 5 to 10 bps in terms of yield. Russian long-term sovereign Eurobonds gained the most among peers on our watch list. Russia-42 and Russia-43 added about 1% to their prices (see page 8). VIP-22 had become a leader adding 1.22% to its price.

We still keep our recommendations for mid-term strategies. We think that Russia’s sovereign and quasi-sovereign dollar-denominated Eurobonds — RUSSIA-20, ALROSA-20, and GPBRU-19 have the best risk/reward profiles for mid-term strategies.

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